期刊论文

中文

现代医院

1671-332X

2023

23

12

1861-1865+1870

10.3969/j.issn.1671-332X.2023.12.015

202210541095:国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目 2021Y06:湖南省卫生健康委员会项目

本校为第一机构

目的 运用ARIMA模型分析某三甲医院糖尿病住院患者费用结构和趋势,为有效控制糖尿病住院费用、减轻患者经济负担提供科学依据.方法 收集某三甲医院2012-2022 年 18 371 例糖尿病患者住院费用资料,采用ARIAM模型对2012-2021 年糖尿病住院患者次均住院费用、药占比进行拟合,用 2022 年数据评价预测效果,并预测2023-2025 年次均住院费用、药占比情况.结果 预测值和实际值的差距较小,平均绝对百分比误差在可接受范围内,ARIAM模型能较好运用于糖尿病费用预测.结论 次均住院费用呈下降趋势,"五色一图一指数"管理模式取得成效;药占比下降明显,费用结构需进一步优化;基于糖尿病的费用预测研究有待深入.

Objective This study conducted the ARIMA model to analyze the cost structure and trend of inpatients with diabetes in a grade-A tertiary hospital and provide scientific basis for effectively controlling diabetes hospitalization expenses and reduce patient's economic burden.Methods The data of 18 371 inpatients with diabetes from 2012 to 2022 in a grade-A tertiary hospital were collected.We collected inpatient data of diabetes from 2012 to 2021 to fit the average inpatient expenses and drug proportion,and used data 2022 to verify the effect of model prediction.We predicted the average inpatient...