期刊论文

中文

湖南中医药大学学报

1674-070X

2024

44

02

338-342

10.3969/j.issn.1674-070X.2024.02.024

2022B10:湖南省卫生经济与信息学会课题 2022CX21:湖南中医药大学研究生创新课题项目

本校为第一机构

目的 通过对2010_2021年湖南省卫生筹资总额(来源法)变化趋势及构成的分析,利用ARIMA模型对 2022_2030 年湖南省卫生健康筹资及其构成进行预测与分析,为湖南省乃至全国卫生健康发展宏观政策制定提供科学合理的数据支撑.方法 基于ARIMA模型,在对湖南省2010_2021年卫生筹资总额及其筹资构成进行训练、拟合的基础上,对未来九年湖南省卫生健康及其构成进行预测.结果 截至2030年,湖南省卫生健康筹资规模将达到4 943.65亿元,其中,政府卫生筹资1 334.37亿元,占26.99%;社会卫生筹资2 350.21亿元,占47.54%;个人现金卫生筹资1 278.76亿元,占25.87%.筹资结构中,相对全国平均水平呈现"一低两高",即政府卫生筹...

Objective To analyze the changing trends and structure of the total amount of health financing(source method)in Hunan from 2010 to 2021,and to predict and analyze the health financing and its structure in Hunan from 2022 to 2030 using the ARIMA model,aiming to provide scientific and reasonable data basis for macropolicy formulation of healthcare development in Hunan Province and even the whole nation.Methods The ARIMA model was applied to training and fitting the total amount of health financing and its structure in Hunan from 2010 to 2021,and thus predicting their trends for the next nine yea...